Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Moss?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 10:06 am

Okay, it's time for another Question of the Week for our Message Board participants:

Can you win an NFFC or NBC Sports FFC league title by drafting Randy Moss in the first round? Moss has an ADP of Top 10 right now, which is among the highest we've ever seen for a wideout at this point in the off-season. Can you really win a league title with any wideout -- but especially the volatile Randy Moss -- by drafting one in the Top 10 of the first round?

Let's hear from the peanut gallery.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 10:20 am

Diesel forwarded me his answer from the road:

This is much easier than the Brady question.

YES, you can win with Moss as your number one pick. In fact, you can win
with any WR stud as your number 1 pick. In a PPR League, WR's are very
important...Even when there seems to be a bunch of them in any given year.
RB's are priceless if they are the absolute starters and will get most of
the carries on their team, but if you're sure of a stud WR, you can't go
wrong taking him early. After all, in a PPR league, if your 1st round
runningback is playing against a stout defense and gets 19 carries for 0
yards, he gets a big ZERO in the scoring...Now if Moss gets 15 passes his
way, and comes down with 9 receptions for ZERO yards, he still comes away
with 9 points.

The key to this strategy is having Moss stay healthy and focused. No one
knows if Moss can keep last year's pace. No one knows how Moss will react
if Welker and/or Gaffney take a bunch of TD's away from him. Will winning
be enough for Randy? Or does he need his fair share of shots in the end
zone for him to keep his head in the game? Don't forget, there's nothing to
say that the Patriots won't use Maroney a lot more this year either.

If Moss stays healthy and focused, he's a great pick in the first round of
any draft that awards points per receptions. He can definitely help you
towards a championship team, if the rest of your draft is on the money.

It comes down to this? Do you trust Moss? If you do, he CAN help you win
your league. If you don't trust him, leave him for someone else. He'll be
a first round draft pick in nearly every fantasy league in 2008.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 10:21 am

I like the differing opinions already. Ryan Welch, a member of our $100,000 NFFC championship team, sent his response to this question via e-mail as well. Here's what he thinks:

I don't think you can. You will severely limit yourself in the running back category if you draft him in the top 10. I don't see him having a year like he did last year again. He will put up good numbers but nothing to warrant top 10 status. Now around 14 or 15 I can see.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 10:37 am

Can you win with Randy Moss in round 1.... ABSOLUTELY!

If you were to select Randy Moss in round one, you would be most likely selecting him anywhere from 7-10. While I agree there are RB's there that you could build your team around, let's look at what you might be getting.

While it would be foolish to expect last year's numbers, they truly were incredible...

98 catches, 1493 yards, and 23 TD's.

That added up to 385.3 points in the NFFC, and the closest competitor was Reggie Wayne with 312.4 points.

Let's say Moss' numbers get cut by approximately 20% in each category. You would be looking at a season of..

79 catches, 1195 yards, and 18 TD's.

That would total up to 306.5 points. While that is almost 80 short of last year, KNOWING you can get a 300 pt WR is a pretty nice start. And this of course is assuming his numbers will go down. Based on early projections of strength of schedule, the Pats have a pretty easy road this year as they get to feast on the weak NFC West.

Another reason he is an attractive first rounder, is because after the top 5 or 6 RB's are selected, there is a big "mix-up" of who 7-12 are. What that means is instead of taking say a Clinton Portis/Ryan Grant and pairing him up with a Larry Fitzgerald, you could have a Randy Moss and Willis McGahee/Reggie Bush type start. And with a little luck, the RB you like at say 1.10 might just slide back around to you in round 2!

Moss is "good to go" at any slot from 7-10. If you are lucky enough to get him after that, and you nail your 2nd and 3rd rounders, forget the "league title", you just might have the inside track at winning the 100K!

[ June 23, 2008, 04:41 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 10:45 am

According to the info on MockDraftCentral, Moss' NFFC ADP right now is 7. I think if you draft him you pretty much have to go with another stud WR in the second. The WRs on the board for the 7th pick in NFFC drafts right now are:

Fitzgerald
Edwards
A.Johnson
C.Johnson

If you team Moss with one of those WRs you could end up with outstanding WR production. The downside is you'll spend the rest of the draft chasing RBs so you can't afford to miss. You could end up with someone like Turner or Edge as your RB1 but you could get someone like McFadden as your RB2 which I think is a very nice upside play. The good news is Roethlisberger's ADP matches up with a fifth-round pick from the seventh spot so you should get a quality QB1.

So I think it boils down to this: Do you think you can win with this group as your foundation?

QB-Roethlisberger
RB-Turner or Edge/McFadden (or Thomas Jones)
WR-Moss
WR-Edwards or Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson or Chad Johnson

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 10:47 am

9 RBs and Brady should be the top 10. Can you win with Moss? Ofcourse you can. Although it is less likely you'll win than drafting Brady.

WRs have a higher variance from year to year. While I see Moss getting 15-16 TDs, that HAS to happen for him to qualify as a top 10 player.

While I would not attempt this strategy, I'm sure Moss will go in the first 10 players.

[ June 23, 2008, 09:39 PM: Message edited by: ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets ]

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 10:49 am

Yes, you could win with Randy. The gap between his points per game and that of most other WRs probably meant you could've taken him in the 1st and skipped your second round pick last season and still won. However, this season is unlikely to be as easy. Defensive coordinators have a season's worth of film to review on how to stop the Brady-Moss connection, and the Pat's scheduling looks as difficult as anyone in the league for the passing game. The odds of him again being fantasy football's leading WR are probably no better than 5:1, and the odds of him repeating last season's numbers are probably closer to 50:1.

From the top half of the 1st round, pairing a more certain RB with a top tier WR in the 2nd looks like a better combination than Moss and a lesser RB in the 2nd.

But the bottom half of the 1st round looks like a close call. From there, it just comes down to how much faith you have in Randy and the NE offense to overcome what should be a greater defensive challenge.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 11:04 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Defensive coordinators have a season's worth of film to review on how to stop the Brady-Moss connection, and the Pat's scheduling looks as difficult as anyone in the league for the passing game. While I agree with everything else you said KJ, I don't agree with this statement at all.

Last year the Pats faced the NFC East, and this year they face the NFC West.

Dallas, NY Giants, Philadelphia, Washington

OR

Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis

Brady pretty much had his way with all of theNFC East except Philly. So what do you think he is going to do against arguably the worst defensive division in football??? He also get 2 games each against Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami, who he torches on an annual basis.

I agree defensive coordinators will be looking at ways to stop their passing game, but keep in mind they DID NOT win the Super Bowl, and will be hungrier than ever to get back there and prove they are "the best".

I highly doubt they change the "game plan" until someone can consistently stop them.

Those teams above.... I just don't see it happening.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 11:14 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Defensive coordinators have a season's worth of film to review on how to stop the Brady-Moss connection i don't see anyone stopping the "jump ball" with the slight Randy push off. that shitt was there all day last year.

eddietheking · Post by **eddietheking** » Mon Jun 23, 2008 11:27 am

If Moss repeats #s from last year of course he's a top ten pick and worth it! If you can trust him, attitude and effort wise. I doubt he'll do as well, the big question is how big of a gap will he have in production over the #2-3 WRs. If it's 18 TDs and 1600yds vs 12 and 1200, good pick. If Wayne or Johnson drafred in round 2 get 15 TDs and 1500 not so good drafting Moss in the top 10.
NE has the NFLs easiest schedule! Not fair! Last year the Brady Bunch poured it on even when ahead by 2-3 TDs, so I don't think they have a mercy rule in NE, even against the AFC East and NFC West patheticallly poor teams passing D.
You have to make the big decision with him or Brady in round 1 of passing on a top 10 RB. I see both of them going way too early in early mock drafts.