Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:41 am

Originally posted by larry schechter:
I totally disagree. I don't think there's any more luck with DEF and K than with other positions. It is possible to pick a DEF and K that are more likely to do well than most other DEF and K.I agree, Larry. Every position has some luck attached. That's what I was getting at before with my Brady Week 16 example.

Given how volatile the defenses were this season (more so than in any other season I can recall in recent history) I think those who targeted a productive one either in the draft or on the Waiver Wire (or both) deserve to reap the benefits for what they procured.

The bottom line is if we try to remove the luck factor from every position in fantasy football there won't be a single position left to use each week. And that doesn't sound like any fun to me at all.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:49 am

Originally posted by larry schechter:
I totally disagree. I don't think there's any more luck with DEF and K than with other positions. It is possible to pick a DEF and K that are more likely to do well than most other DEF and K.

And I think it's not smart of everyone who waits till the last round to grab a kicker because they think it doesn't matter. I agree. We seldom wait that long either. In one DC league though, we drafted Kaeding AND Hartley. That sure worked out great!

Nevertheless:
• 9 of the top 14 scoring kickers were not among the top 14 drafted.
• Besides the #1 kicker, Akers, the difference between #2 and #14 was 1 PPG.

So if most people's kickers are within a single point of each other and most people could obtain a serviceable kicker off waivers, then aside from enjoying the wildcard aspect of a wildly volatile position, what exactly is the luster of this position? And aside from attempting to play matchups (which is arguably even harder with kickers than position players), where is the strategy?

Again, as with DSTs, I realize I'm in the minority. I still don't mind having taken a shot.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:53 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
The bottom line is if we try to remove the luck factor from every position in fantasy football there won't be a single position left to use each week. And that doesn't sound like any fun to me at all. I guess I see the reviewing of positions as similar to how the NFFC moved away from stressing H2H and more towards points - which apparently was specifically to reduce the luck factor in this game.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:00 am

It was Mike and I think it works but as I said you can't remove the luck element from every position. Should Tom Brady owners be penalized because they lucked into three rushing TDs in his last two fantasy games (including two in championship week)? I don't believe they should anymore than someone who drafted Akers or a top defense should be penalized for any luck they may have acquired.

More importantly, I don't believe there's any more luck involved with kickers and defense than any other position. If you draft a great one, chances are there will be some luck, just like there will be at QB, RB, WR and TE as well. You can't get rid of the luck factor entirely.

So just like people should be praised for drafting Cam Newton and any "luck" that may have come with that pick, I think people should be praised for drafting David Akers or another top kicker or targeting a productive defense. It's all about targeting the right players, regardless of position. That's the bottom line in this game and what makes it so much fun in my opinion.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:10 am

I guess I don't see Brady - a top 3 QB from whom people expect 3 TDs per week (whether passing, rushing, whatever) as anywhere near the same as Ks and DSTs.

I'm pretty sure the results I posted above would greatly refute your assertion that there's no more luck with kickers and DSTs than other positions. But I'll let others judge for themselves rather than continue going back and forth with you (especially seeing you owned Akers in at least one league and perhaps are taking any "luck" claims a bit personally?).

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:19 am

Mike, I'm not taking anything personally. Nothing could be further from the truth. I'll give you an example - my top league plays through Week 17 and it's total points. I own Akers. Was I lucky to get a touchdown pass from a kicker yesterday? Hell yes. Was I even luckier that I also was starting the player he threw it to (Crabtree)? Double hell yes.

I don't deny that but that's also an example of a WR getting pretty darn lucky too. Should Crabtree not get those points? I don't believe that should be the case.

The Brady example fits because no one was projecting two rushing TDs for him in Week 16. So his owners got amazingly lucky. And anyone who may have started Green-Ellis got amazingly unlucky.

But that's the deal. There is luck associated with every position in fantasy football, good and bad. If we're going to do away with kickers and defenses because of the perception of luck, then we have to do away with every position because of the luck involved there too. The way I see it is if you target the right players, you put yourself in a better position to have some good fortune go your way.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:28 am

And just to make it clear this has nothing to do with David Akers, I'll say that I struggled with defenses in nearly every league I played in this season. I did better in the second half of the season in some leagues but overall I struggled to field a productive defense a lot of weeks. So to those who were able to do that, I say congrats and more power to you. They were able to more successfully navigate the mine field that was fantasy defenses this season more effectively than I did.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:35 am

IMO Tom, the reason DSTs and Ks are more luck-based is because we only start one of them each per week and because the top 14 each year are wildly unpredictable. With position players like WRs, we start 3-4 per week. So when we hit on one off waivers or a late-round draftee, the proportion of what that lone player does in relation to the rest of that position on each team is diminished. But with DSTs and Ks, large numbers of the ones we start come off waivers and we only start one. So the impact vs. other teams in our leagues is greater.

In summary:
1. The positions themselves are considered less important (or they'd be drafted much earlier)
2. They are wildly unpredictable each year (though we can certainly make a case that all positions have some volatility)
3. An alarming number of us will start a player each week at these positions that we waited until after the draft to pickup (based on actual, witnessed production).

I guess that's why this is called "gambling"? We may not admit it, but when our players we spent most of the off-season analyzing (position players) have a bad game, we LIKE the chance of still being able to win with a big day from our DST or K - positions that were obviously deemed less important on draft day.

Stepping off soap box.

[ January 02, 2012, 10:37 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:39 am

There's only one QB started per week too and it's not uncommon to see that player be a Waiver Wire pickup. Think Mike Vick last season. Tebow and guys like Matt Moore or Carson Palmer this season.

Sorry Mike, but there's risk involved at every position and luck impacts every position as I've been saying. If we're going to remove one position because of the perception there's too much luck involved then we need to remove them all because there's no question good fortune impacts every position at some point in fantasy football.

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:42 am

Here is what I look at in regards to defenses not including personnel and coaching changes.

1. Schedule - how many "less than average" QB's will they face this year.

2. Sacks - they are somewhat duplicatable

3. Return game - does the team have Devin Hester????

Things I don't pay any attention to.

1. Fumble recoveries - how do you predict which way a ball will bounce?

2. Interception returns for TD's. This is the stat that normally moves D's way up or down form one year to next. Very hard to predict.

It's not perfect but for instance I did load up on the 49's this year just because of their schedule. I ended up having them on 13/20 teams this year. Lucky - yes, but I liked the schedule and the coach.

That being said, I don't think I drafted Akers anywhere but I was lucky enough to pick him up on waivers a couple of places.

Wayne

[ January 02, 2012, 10:43 AM: Message edited by: Coltsfan ]