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mkrucek · Post by **mkrucek** » Thu May 15, 2008 5:07 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
This would assume all 400 players are the same in both contests. I would guess there probably wouldn't be greater than a 50% participation in both contesta or around 200 contestants. no way the insurance company woul take the risk of lowballing it. if smart, they'll assume the contestants will be the same in both events. [/QUOTE]Add in a couple of things in determing the cost. There aren't a lot of companies out there that underwrite specialty risks like this, so not a lot of competition to keep prices down and probably not a lot of companies that they could lay off part of the risk to.

Insurers manage risk and they are very good at that when they have numbers to analyze. The more the better and this would have nothing for them to look at historically. They would most likely add a nice premium for the additional risk. Throw in the profit margin and I think your estimate might be low, GG. It will be interesting to see, though.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu May 15, 2008 5:16 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
This would assume all 400 players are the same in both contests. I would guess there probably wouldn't be greater than a 50% participation in both contesta or around 200 contestants. no way the insurance company woul take the risk of lowballing it. if smart, they'll assume the contestants will be the same in both events. [/QUOTE]You're absolutely right. The insurance co. won't take the risk of participation, that will be an NFFC/NBC risk. The policy cost "should" be a factor of actual risk. So, the policy cost could very well be based on the percentage of participants in both contests or the actual risk being incurred..
But, in a "specialty" policy like this its cost is probably more a factor of what the "market will bear" versus the actual risk. And, of course, its also a factor of relationship. So, theortically having a partner like NBC who probably has a much more significant influence in the insurance market than Krause, should be a major plus if they are willing to use their clout.

Baker Boy · Post by **Baker Boy** » Thu May 15, 2008 5:22 am

Riff interesting point, so if only 50% play both that would increase the odds to approx 800-1 of winning both if these were ping pong balls.

I think the "skill" factor is something to take into cosideration esp because of KDS. You can pick the same team over and over much easier. I know LT2 has been a mainstay of many high stakes fantasy championship teams over the years but at least know 1 of the WCOFF Champs had Westbrook certainly a player that could easily been taken on several teams in KDS format.

Baker Boy · Post by **Baker Boy** » Thu May 15, 2008 5:30 am

You would think NBC could self-insure AND pray somebody hits it!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu May 15, 2008 5:46 am

With the small amount of fantasy baseball (NFBC) players who play fantasy football...added to the high volatility of the fantasy football contest...there would only be a handful of guys with a realistic shot at winning both...and with football being such a short and injury dependant game...the odds are worse than you think of winning both.

Just football (the harder to win based on short season and injury)...winning both the NFFC and NBC Main events would almost require you to draft from a similar spot in each, and bank on the same core players and free agent buys...get lucky as hell they stay healthy and have career years.

The $1,000,000.00 would grab some headlines...and who knows...if a few guys were in the hunt late in both main event playoffs...WOW!

~Lance

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu May 15, 2008 5:46 am

Originally posted by Baker Boy:
Riff interesting point, so if only 50% play both that would increase the odds to approx 800-1 of winning both if these were ping pong balls.

I think the "skill" factor is something to take into cosideration esp because of KDS. You can pick the same team over and over much easier. I know LT2 has been a mainstay of many high stakes fantasy championship teams over the years but at least know 1 of the WCOFF Champs had Westbrook certainly a player that could easily been taken on several teams in KDS format. Yeah, the theoritical risk would be based on the number of contestants in each contest and how many of those contestants are entered in both contests. So if the NFFC contest had 392 contestants and the NBC contest had 420 contestants and 200 contestants participated in both contests; then there would be 192 contestants that could win the NFFC contest and not win the $1 Million bonus and there would be 220 in the NBC contest that wouldn't be eligible for the Million dollar bonus. Add in whatever skill factor you believe appropriate and that should be the calculated risk.
Even with KDS a participant's chance of getting the #1 pick in both contests is pretty slim. Probably in excess of 90% of participants will still have #1 as their 1st choice in both contests.
And I'm sure GE has this capability if someone on the NBC side in the NBC/NFFC relationship is willing to locate it.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu May 15, 2008 5:55 am

Devils Advocate here...

The NFFC has a leader winning by 85 points going into the final week. (an almost insurmountable lead.)

That same guy is in 2nd place in the NBC main with that same lead on the field, but trailing the guy in first by 20 pts.

Pssst..."I'll pay you $150,000.00 if you start these two or three guys over those two or three guys so I can pass you here, and win both events and get that million dollar payoff!"

The guy taking the bribe does so without a written contract, but the guy offering the bribe wins both and stiffs him and then "COLLUSION" headlines rock the fantasy sports world as the stiffed guy takes the winner to court over verbal contracts and cheating!!!

I know...big reach...but it's fun to play DA.

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu May 15, 2008 5:56 am

Good coffee!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu May 15, 2008 5:57 am

Originally posted by 4D:
I think your estimate might be low, GG. It will be interesting to see, though. Ya, some good points brought out in this thread. I'll up my estimate to 15-20K. But, it all depends how much the factor skill into it.

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Thu May 15, 2008 6:34 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
Devils Advocate here...

The NFFC has a leader winning by 85 points going into the final week. (an almost insurmountable lead.)

That same guy is in 2nd place in the NBC main with that same lead on the field, but trailing the guy in first by 20 pts.

Pssst..."I'll pay you $150,000.00 if you start these two or three guys over those two or three guys so I can pass you here, and win both events and get that million dollar payoff!"

The guy taking the bribe does so without a written contract, but the guy offering the bribe wins both and stiffs him and then "COLLUSION" headlines rock the fantasy sports world as the stiffed guy takes the winner to court over verbal contracts and cheating!!!

I know...big reach...but it's fun to play DA.

~Lance ASK COACH ROMEO FROM CLEVELAND. PSST "TONY DUNGY
HAVE YOUR TEAM LAY DOWN THIS GAME SO WE CAN MAKE THE PLAYOFFS."

"O.K. JEFF NO PROBLEM. WE HAVE NOTHING TO PLAY FOR."