My Current Rankings

[Tom Kessenich]

I posted some of these on Monday but wanted to post the more in-depth list today since I've done more tinkering. I'll include some notes after each of the primary positions. Comments are welcome.

QUARTERBACKS
1. Aaron Rodgers - GB
2. Drew Brees - NO
3. Tom Brady - NE
4. Michael Vick - PHI
5. Peyton Manning - IND
6. Philip Rivers - SD
7. Tony Romo - DAL
8. Matt Ryan - ATL
9. Ben Roethlisberger - PIT
10. Matt Schaub - HOU
11. Eli Manning - NYG
12. Jay Cutler - CHI
13. Josh Freeman - TB
14. Joe Flacco - BAL
15. Matthew Stafford - DET
16. Sam Bradford - STL
17. Matt Cassel - KC
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick - BUF
19. Mark Sanchez - NYJ
20. Donovan McNabb - WAS
21. Chad Henne - MIA
22. Jason Campbell - OAK
23. Tim Tebow - DEN
24. Alex Smith - SF
25. David Garrard - JAX
26. Andy Dalton - CIN
27. Charlie Whitehurst - SEA
28. Jake Locker - TEN
29. Cam Newton - CAR
30. Colt McCoy - CLE
31. Christian Ponder - MIN
32. John Skelton - ARI

NOTES: The position is pretty much impossible to rank after the first 19 or so due to the lockout. I have McNabb currently ranked as a potential starter but that could change. Same with some of the rookies like Dalton, Locker and Ponder. So consider the rankings 20-32 to be VERY much in a state of flux and likely to face massive changes once the lockout is over.

RUNNING BACKS
1. Arian Foster - HOU
2. Adrian Peterson - MIN
3. Chris Johnson - TEN
4. Jamaal Charles - KC
5. LeSean McCoy - PHI
6. Ray Rice - BAL
7. Rashard Mendenhall - PIT
8. Maurice Jones-Drew - JAX
9. Frank Gore - SF
10. Steven Jackson - STL
11. Jonathan Stewart - CAR
12. Matt Forte - CHI
13. Michael Turner - ATL
14. Ryan Mathews - SD
15. Darren McFadden - OAK
16. Shonn Greene - NYJ
17. Peyton Hillis - CLE
18. Daniel Thomas - MIA
19. Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG
20. Mark Ingram - NO
21. DeAngelo Williams - FA
22. Cedric Benson - CIN
23. Jahvid Best - DET
24. LeGarrette Blount - TB
25. Felix Jones - DAL
26. Joseph Addai - IND
27. Marshawn Lynch - SEA
28. Knowshon Moreno - DEN
29. Benjarvus Green-Ellis NE
30. James Starks - GB
31. Fred Jackson - BUF
32. Mikel Leshoure - DET
33. Brandon Jacobs - NYG
34. Ryan Torain - WAS
35. Roy Helu - WAS
36. Ryan Grant - GB
37. Mike Tolbert - SD
38. Beanie Wells - ARI
39. Reggie Bush - NO
40. C.J. Spiller - BUF

NOTES: I've gone back to ranking Jonathan Stewart as if DeAngelo Williams will be gone but that obviously could change depending on how free agency is handled for this season. I've dropped MJD a bit but I haven't lost complete faith in him yet. But currently, I'm not willing to commit an early first-round pick to him. Darren McFadden is probably the most difficult guy for me to rank right now. He was a stud last season but was that a fluke or a sign of what's to come? My current ranking is a conservative estimate that maybe it's somewhere in between. Plenty of timeshares yet to be decided which will impact players ranked outside the Top 25 such as Green-Ellis, Starks/Grant, Wells/Williams and Torain/Helu.

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Johnson - HOU
2. Roddy White - ATL
3. Calvin Johnson - DET
4. Hakeem Nicks - NYG
5. Reggie Wayne - IND
6. Greg Jennings - GB
7. Larry Fitzgerald - ARI
8. Dwayne Bowe - KC
9. Mike Wallace - PIT
10. Vincent Jackson - SD
11. Marques Colston - NO
12. DeSean Jackson - PHI
13. Dez Bryant - DAL
14. Mike Williams - TB
15. Wes Welker - NE
16. Miles Austin - DAL
17. Austin Collie - IND
18. Jeremy Maclin - PHI
19. Steve Johnson - BUF
20. Brandon Lloyd - DEN
21. Brandon Marshall - MIA
22. Sidney Rice - MIN
23. Johnny Knox - CHI
24. Percy Harvin - MIN
25. Anquan Boldin - BAL
26. Santonio Holmes - FA
27. Santana Moss - FA
28. Pierre Garcon - IND
29. Mario Manningham - NYG
30. Kenny Britt - TEN
31. Braylon Edwards - FA
32. Mike Williams - SEA
33. Terrell Owens - FA
34. Steve Smith - CAR
35. A.J. Green - CIN
36. Mike Thomas - JAX
37. Danny Amendola - STL
38. Michael Crabtree - SF
39. Julio Jones - ATL
40. Malcolm Floyd - SD
41. Steve Smith - NYG
42. Jacoby Ford - OAK
43. Chad Ochocinco - FA
44. Derrick Mason - BAL
45. Deion Branch - NE

NOTES: Not many major changes here although I'm starting to feel real good about Jacoby Ford. He could move up my rankings even more as we go along. Larry Fitzgerald will definitely be moved up if Kolb goes to Arizona. He's looking like a great value pick right now. I'm still bullish on Dez Bryant and believe he's poised for a major bustout.

TIGHT ENDS
1. Dallas Clark - IND
2. Jason Witten - DAL
3. Antonio Gates - SD
4. Jermichael Finley - GB
5. Brandon Pettigrew - DET
6. Vernon Davis - SF
7. Chris Cooley - WAS
8. Owen Daniels - HOU
9. Tony Gonzalez - ATL
10. Marcedes Lewis - JAX
11. Jimmy Graham - NO
12. Kellen Winslow - TB
13. Zach Miller - OAK
14. Brent Celek - PHI
15. Rob Gronkowski - NE
16. Ben Watson - CLE
17. Dustin Keller - NYJ
18. Todd Heap - BAL
19. Tony Moeaki - KC
20. Aaron Hernandez - NE
21. Jermaine Gresham - CIN
22. Anthony Fasano - MIA
23. Greg Olsen - CHI
24. Heath Miller - PIT
25. Jeremy Shockey - CAR

NOTES: Tons of talent at this position. Love the first 13 as starters and like the upside for the next six guys as well. This looks like another great year to wait on your starting TE.

KICKERS
1. Garrett Hartley - NO
2. Stephen Gostkowski - NE
3. Matt Bryant - ATL
4. Neil Rackers - HOU
5. Mason Crosby - GB
6. David Akers- FA
7. Josh Brown - STL
8. Sebastian Janikowski - OAK
9. Adam Vinatieri - IND
10. Dan Carpenter - MIA
11. David Buehler - DAL
12. Nate Kaeding - SD
13. Nick Folk - NYJ
14. Lawrence Tynes - NYG
15. Billy Cundiff - BAL
16. Robbie Gould - CHI
17. Alex Henery - PHI
18. Josh Scobee - JAX
19. Jason Hanson - DET
20. Jay Feely - ARI
21. Rob Bironas - TEN
22. Connor Barth - TB
23. Olindo Mare - SEA
24. Jeff Reed - PIT
25. John Kasay - CAR
26. Graham Gano - WAS
27. Ryan Succop - KC
28. Phil Dawson - CLe
29. Matt Prater - DEN
30. Rian Lindell - BUF
31. Ryan Longwell - MIN
32. Mike Nugent - CIN
33. Joe Nedney - SF

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Green Bay
2. Pittsburgh
3. Chicago
4. New England
5. NY Jets
6. San Diego
7. Baltimore
8. NY Giants
9. Dallas
10. Atlanta
11. Philadelphia
12. Oakland
13. Arizona
14. Tampa Bay
15. Minnesota
16. Indianapolis
17. New Orleans
18. St. Louis
19. Detroit
20. Seattle
21. Kansas City
22. San Francisco
23. Tennessee
24. Washington
25. Cleveland
26. Buffalo
27. Miami
28. Cincinnati
29. Jacksonville
30. Carolina
31. Houston
32. Denver

[ June 09, 2011, 02:12 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

[boutrous11]

Matt Stafford is going to be this year's Adrian Foster. Meaning his ADP is going to climb and climb throughout the summer. I think it'll end up being around 7 for qbs.

[Tom Kessenich]

Originally posted by boutrous11:
Matt Stafford is going to be this year's Adrian Foster. Meaning his ADP is going to climb and climb throughout the summer. I think it'll end up being around 7 for qbs. I'm not sure it'll go that high but I agree he's going to be a hot pick. I think he could end up being overvalued by the time the season begins because so many people are likely to target him. I think he's a bit overvalued now.

I have Kenny Britt 30th on my WR list but he's rapidly approaching Do Not Draft status after yet another arrest. The guy clearly has major issues.

[boutrous11]

Arian, sorry.

[DoubleG]

Thank you tom for the rankings. my prep for the league tomorrow starts at 8pm tonight after my kid goes to sleep. i will be looking at your rankings to help me judge where players go

[DoubleG]

tom - boldin really fizzled the 2nd half of last year. any thoughts as to why?

[Getpaddled]

Nice list... Tom you think A. J Green will have a better season then J. Jones? Whats your thoughts.....?

I think Jones almost doubles what Green does this year!

[SS]

Tom, two things. Peyton Hillis seems kind of low on your list to me, can you please explain why?

Also, do you think Goodson takes away from Stewarts carries in Carolina especially on third down and goal line? Thanks in advance...

[Tom Kessenich]

Keep the feedback coming guys. I'm feeling a resolution to all this nonsense so soon I believe we'll have actual football and rankings and players to talk about. To address some of the questions brought up so far:

Boldin
He did drop off last season and that's cause for concern. I think that's a product of a few things, among them a sign of regression in his game, Derrick Mason still being a solid receiver and the fact Flacco really hasn't stepped into the stud QB role many believe he has the talent to become. I think last season's second-half fade is a red flag and a reason to view Boldin as more of a high-end WR3.

Green/Jones
The reason I have Green ranked higher is he should move into a more prominent role than Jones. Granted, Jones is playing on a much better team with a much better QB but he has White and Gonzalez to contend with for targets and receptions. Green has no one really. He should be the No. 1 WR for the Bengals and amass a healthy number of targets. I think both guys are very talented but I' think the player with the more prominent role is the one I'd prefer for fantasy this season and that guy is Green.

Hillis
Two things that are red flags about Hillis - his production tailed off in the second half last season (a sign of overwork and a potential indication he's not a true lead back) and the Browns loved Monterio Hardesty before he got hurt last season. I think the Browns realized they used Hillis too much in the first half last season and want to reduce his workload. They have the opportunity to do that with Hardesty if he's healthy. I'm actually tempted to drop Hillis even lower than where I have him ranked and if Hardesty looks good in camp/preseason I might end up doing that. I'm not sold on Hillis being a quality RB1 this season.

Stewart/Goodson
Goodson was a revelation last season and he'll have a valuable role for the Panthers again in 2011. But Stewart is a true lead back and I expect him to be utilized as one if Williams leaves as a free agent. Goodson will be there to get carries to keep Stewart fresh and handle the third-down role. As long as Stewart is healthy and the starter he is a lock for 15-20 carries this season. Given his talent, I think that volume of carries will enable him to produce RB1 production.

[pizzatyme]

Hey Tom! Nice job on the projections!

Here are a few thoughts of mine:

I'm very worried about Peterson and Chris Johnson with the shortened pre-season and potential new QBs. Both are great talents, but I don't see them as RBs #2 &3 this season. I'd feel much better having them in the 6/7 slots.

I know Fitz ranking is fluid, but #7 may be tough even with Kolb again with the shortened pre-season.

I have Macklin higher than DJax. Targets were there and TDs are tough to project for a repeat.

Thanks for your thoughts!