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[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
[qb] [QUOTE]Originally posted by RiFF:
[qb]
And of course the Insurance Company can make any projection they see fit; but that projection is profit based not reality based. [/QUOTE]This is the key to the question. I'm asking folks how often you think the insurance company believes one person can win both events over time? They are basing their quote on that figure and obviously the price of the insurance is based on that figure. So those are the fun numbers. Stay on topic and keep the guesses coming. I kind of lost all of the answers amongst the odds of winning both events.

[Raiders]

153,500 to 1. So the odds are good it won't happen at all. But you never know.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Raiders:
153,500 to 1. So the odds are good it won't happen at all. But you never know. Okay, let me add one more twist to the debate. Everyone keeps concentrating on the fact that we'll have 392 teams in one contest and 396 in another and thus the odds of one team winning both contests is 1:155,232. I wish the insurance company viewed it the same way, but they don't. Basically, I think they see it as a 1:396 chance.

But let's break it down even further. With each contest having wild cards, we're probably looking at something like 62 playoff teams in the NFFC and 74 playoff teams in the NBC FFC. Out of those teams, how many do you think will have duplicate owners? Do you think it's possible that 10 owners will make the Championship Round in each contest? 15? 20? 25? Maybe 30?

I think we all agree it's possible for someone to finish first or second in both leagues, right? There are enough talented owners in our contests to win both and with the way signups are going I'd say we'll have 100+ owners doing both main events. So imagine if 25 owners were in the Championship Round of each contest. Now what are the odds of winning both titles??

I'm not telling the insurance company these numbers, but I think if you look at it this way, you can see that it is possible for someone to do the impossible. It certainly can be done.

Okay, now who wants to submit another guess on the insurance quote and the number of years the insurance company thinks this can be accomplished in?

[ May 22, 2008, 01:39 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

[Diesel]

OKay Greg, first of all, you threw us a loophole saying that our choices were 10-1, 20-1, 50-1 or 100-1.

I originally said it was MUCH higher than your choices, so I should win the grand prize for that one. One drink ticket for me.

I also think that insurance companies are no better than your average loan shark with a twist. So I'm going to say that with their odds of 396-1, it will cost the NFFC $11,237.83 to cover your end.

I put the cents there because the insurance company will too. It makes it seem like they really know what the hell they are talking about, when they add on a few cents...

[ May 22, 2008, 01:55 PM: Message edited by: Diesel ]

[Raiders]

Greg by the way I round off.
If the Insurance Company is saying 1 in 13 years. There crazy.

[ May 22, 2008, 01:59 PM: Message edited by: Raiders ]

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Diesel:
I put the cents there because the insurance company will too. It makes it seem like they really know what the hell they are talking about, when they add on a few cents... Sorry, you lose. There are no cents (or sense) at the insurance company. One flat fee with odds better than this happening once every 100 years. In fact, I'll narrow it to between 5 and 50 and take two of the choices off the board. How's that?

All I can say is that the more I talk about this the more it somehow has to be done. Folks I'm talking to on the phone are buzzed about the chance to win a major bonus. Yeah, everything has to fall right, but dammit, anything is also possible. We'll see how we can do something about this, but it's going to take some time on our end to figure it out. All I know is that a lot of our serious players like the concept and it could be the best damn day any of us have ever had!!

[hammer]

Are you math guys assuming the insurance company is reasonable?

Picture this: a team of skinny guys with glasses working actuarial tables under poor lighting... after a lot of work they submit a bunch of figures and a final estimate to some well manicured dude with an office and a title... he then makes a phone call to a fat guy with a drink in one and a cigar in the other... THAT's the guy who sets the final price (and his price won't bear correlation to the odds presented by its originators)

[ultimatefs]

Can you see what the price would be to win an extra $300K?

This would give the winner of both a cool half mil.

[Diesel]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Diesel:
I put the cents there because the insurance company will too. It makes it seem like they really know what the hell they are talking about, when they add on a few cents... Sorry, you lose. There are no cents (or sense) at the insurance company. One flat fee with odds better than this happening once every 100 years. In fact, I'll narrow it to between 5 and 50 and take two of the choices off the board. How's that?

All I can say is that the more I talk about this the more it somehow has to be done. Folks I'm talking to on the phone are buzzed about the chance to win a major bonus. Yeah, everything has to fall right, but dammit, anything is also possible. We'll see how we can do something about this, but it's going to take some time on our end to figure it out. All I know is that a lot of our serious players like the concept and it could be the best damn day any of us have ever had!! [/QUOTE]So you're saying I didn't win a drink ticket? ))

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by JohnZ:
Can you see what the price would be to win an extra $300K?

This would give the winner of both a cool half mil. 30% of the million dollar quote.