Flex Player

[Dyv]

Ernol, in these 14 team leagues depth is an issue at almost every position.

RB are consistent and a 3rd playing RB gives you flexibility to manage your roster effectively. WR are more readily available - the spread between the #40 WR and the #20 WR on my list is about 37 pts. for the season. Fall back to #60 and you lose another 30... now become a good manager and play those 2nd and 3rd tier WR in good matchups and you can minimize the fall off quite well. (That is to say a WR who should 'average' 7 pts. per game may produce them as 3, 5, 2, 14 and 11 - put that guy in on the 14 and 11 days and you do just fine)

Your choices are always the same in a draft - quality vs. quantity. Whenever possible you take quality. When not possible, you get quantity and play matchups.

Agreed?

Dave

[Dyv]

Originally posted by renman:
say you had j.j arrington as your RB3... do you start him at FLEX over lower tier WR's like randel el, calico, r. williams (jax)?

interested in seeing if opinions differ... Unclear how Denny Green is going to use him or how he's going to play, but in week 1 I would take Arrington over those WR you list given the matchups. Only temptation for me is Randle El with a cherry matchup...

D

[TradeStar28]

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
quote:Originally posted by FI$HER:
quote:Originally posted by BIGT:
I know most of us prefer starting a 3rd RB, but not every team will have that luxury.

Does anyone think starting 4 WR's (most weeks) can bring you to the Promised Land?

Anyone think they have the WR's to do it? Not only do we have 4 WR's to do it....but we have 5 !!

S. SMITH - D. BRANCH - JIMMY SMITH - PLAXICO BURRESS - ANTONIO BRYANT

And...you mentioned about 3 RB's worries? Not FI$HER.....

W. McGahee - L. Jordan - W. Dunn


U would figure our TE would suck ? Nah

R. McMichael

And if Randy is home bitch slapping his wife....we got J. Stevens behind him

[/QUOTE]That looks pretty impressive!!! What, you have Drew Brees at QB??? Never mind! [/QUOTE]Brees aint our starter this week

[Ernol]

Thanks Dyv. That makes sense. However, I would be surprised if barring injury, playing matchups with the WR3 and starting the RB3 as the flex would make up the large deficit between the WR in the 3rd round versus the RB in the 3rd round. That difference over a season easily could be over 50 points (using for example a Javon Walker versus a Ronnie Brown).

Granted, if both teams lose the 2nd round RB to injury, having that 3rd back in round 3 would be nice. But thats only IF one of the first two backs gets injured and IF the 3rd round back also does not get injured or busts. Otherwise, I think it would be awfully tough to make back the 50+ points.

Also, you can still play matchups with the WR4. Its just that while the 3RB teams are playing matchups with their WR3 (because it is not using a WR4 as a flex), the 2RB team is playing matchups with its WR4. Again, I really only see the 3RB team catching up (and passing up) where both teams are stricken with an injury to one of the first two backs.

[Dyv]

Ok, let's say it's 50 pts. Now take the 10-12 pt. difference for 2 different bye weeks when your RB3 subs in as RB2... now we're at a 28 pt. difference. (when the non 3rb team has to play a fullback)

Now also take the weeks when your WR1,2,3 or 4 are on bye weeks and you actually play WR5 as a starter....

that's gotta be a 3-5 pt. difference x 4 weeks = 16 or so? Now we're at a 12 pt. difference....

That's not even counting injuries AND it's not counting the fact that some of those RB3 will actually perform at a higher level (whereas there is no chance Javon Walker can produce 30% more, right?)

That's also ignoring when each respective team took their QB or TE...



Dave

[ September 09, 2005, 11:11 PM: Message edited by: Dyv ]

[Ernol]

Dyv –

You have stacked the deck in your favor in that analysis. First of all, the 10-12 point difference per by week is high even where the non 3RB team only has a fullback to step in. Using last years numbers, the 25th best RB only scored 160 or so points. Thats 10 points per week. A backup scoring 50 points is 3 points. Thats a 14 point difference for 2 weeks using that example. Even assuming a 190 point RB3 (which is a high assumption given last years numbers), thats an 18 point differential. Lets go with the 190 for a difference now of 32.

Your WR bye week analysis has a problem as well. In this analysis, we should assume that both teams picked the same players except that one picked a RB in round 3 and the other a WR in round 3. I think we should do this to avoid an argument that one WR in round 4 is better than the WR the other team picked in the same round. Given that assumption, the 2RB team’s WR2, 3 and 4 are on bye the same time the other team’s WR1, 2 and 3 are on bye (even where the WRs are not identical, the 2RB team also has its WR1, 2 and 3 go on byes, but its just easier to analyze where both teams are virtually identical). In both cases, both teams fill in with the same receiver (since both teams have the same stable of backup WRs).

Now there is a difference when the 2RB team has WR1 on bye because the other team does not have that player. However, the 3RB team also has a bye with its RB3 that the 2RB team does not have. The advantage there goes to the 2RB team for that one week because the WR1 outscores the RB3 by 50 points. The advantage is 3 points (50 points divided by 16).

So, not counting injury, the 2RB team still has a 29 point edge.

Now I agree that we are not taking into account that some of those RB3s can go off and be much better. Then again, they can also be a LOT worse. Using last year’s LV3, 3 out of 5 RBs picked in the third round busted. 7 out of 10 in rounds 3 and 4 busted. So while you may hit the jackpot, you are just as likely to bust. Also, the WR in the third round could also do better and has a better chance of not busting (and if there is a bust, the differential is usually not nearly as bad as a RB bust). Point is, the upside/downside possibility in the third round should not be taken into account in this analysis unless you make it in favor of the 2RB team.

As for the QB and TE, since the only difference between the teams is 2RB versus 3RB, we can assume that the same QB and same TE were taken by both teams.

29 points is not insurmountable but still a difference. However, using last year’s numbers again, the sixth best receiver versus the 25th best RB came out 280 versus 163!!! How's that for stacking the deck

[JerseyPaul]

Wow, Dyv really knows his stuff.

He can readily tell the morons from the sharks.

It must be great to be a Dyv.

[Dyv]

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
Wow, Dyv really knows his stuff.

He can readily tell the morons from the sharks.

It must be great to be a Dyv. I am just a moron in your presence, JP - I wish to aspire to your level

[Ernol]

Dyv - I think JP is calling me a moron Although I'll take that over what my wife is calling me now that I have spent half the night typing on this board. Let's just say that she is not pleased.

[Dyv]

Ernol, are you using 'drafted' 6th best WR vs. 'drafted' 25th best RB or after-the-season facts?

Help me understand something...

Are you assuming that the team that starts 3RB/3WR gets their 4th WR in the same round as the team who goes 2RB/4WR gets their 5th WR? They are (in your review) the same player, correct? Is that a safe assumption for you to make or are you talking about a theoretical draft?

I agree that the points produced have more potential with a 4 WR everyone stays healthy team.... but that level of risk to generate 29 pts. over the course of a season doesn't make sense to me. You can generate your 29 points by picking a good RB3 more easily and more safely.

Dyv